CHANGES IN CRIME RATES AND FAMILY-RELATED VALUES IN SELECTED EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
David J. Krus and Edward A.
Nelsen
Arizona State University
James M. Webb
Kent State University
Summary.—Observations and longitudinal comparisons of emerging trends within formerly socialist East European countries offer a unique opportunity to observe some of the social policies typical of the capitalist and socialist systems and their influence on society. Some of the emerging trends in the Czech Republic, former East Germany, and Russia pertaining to general areas of public health, family, and crime are described. Effects of these changes are discussed within the framework of a recently proposed multiple regression model of criminal behavior in which criminality is attributed to the confluence of gross inequalities in the distribution of wealth and to the disintegration of the traditional family. The changes should be considered in the conduct of research.
The demise of socialism in most East European states offers a unique opportunity for longitudinal comparisons of socialist and capitalist societies. Up to now, most comparative studies of capitalist and socialist societies have been constrained by the necessity of employing the cross-sectional model of social research with its well-known shortcomings and limitations. In such comparisons, native cultures, intellectual climate, outcomes of major wars, general literacy, liberal or authoritarian traditions, poverty, natural resources, and a multitude of other factors specific to the countries have confounded such comparisons. The recent transition of the former Soviet block from socialist to capitalist economies offers an opportunity to use more revealing longitudinal quantitative comparisons.
PUBLIC HEALTH
In the Czech Republic, the number of patients checked annually into psychiatric hospitals increased 300% between 1990 and 1996. The demographic category with the largest increase in psychiatric hospital admissions were men in their fifties, most often diagnosed as depressive and at risk for suicide (Dostal, 1996). Illicit drug use increased from socially insignificant levels to epidemic proportions; however, most dramatic is the increase in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases.
During the socialist administration when mandatory reporting and tracing of all sexually transmitted diseases was required, the incidence of the venereal diseases was far lower than their incidence in the West. Since the fall of the Berlin wall, all venereal diseases have increased; of these, the incidence of syphilis has increased in Bohemia over 1,000 times during the period separating the socialist and capitalist governments (Ceska Televize, 1996). In the socialist Soviet Union, the incidence of syphilis was lower than the West European average of about 3 per 100,000. In democratic Russia (Fig. 1), reports of the number of Russians infected with syphilis indicate a rise to 177 per 100,000 (Associated Press, 1996).
Fig. 1. Polynomially approximated growth of syphilis in Russia
during transition from planned to marked economies.
FAMILY
A report on demographic changes released by Prague’s Emperor Charles IV University Department of Demography (Burcin & Kucera, 1995) was phrased in terms most favorable to the present democratic government of the Czech Republic. A reported decrease in the number of live births was ascribed to changed orientation of women to “other than traditional values.” It praised the government for rapid introduction of the “new model of reproductive behavior—a model corresponding to postindustrial society.” It blamed the previous socialist government of Bohemia for “overly” pro-family policies" that resulted in “inordinate costs of the educational system.” It also pointed to a future in which the new democratic state would he able to reduce the number of schools and reinvest savings that would result from scrapping school buildings and having fewer teachers on the payroll.
What seemed to escape most casual readers is the magnitude of this decline, the largest population downturn since the statistics of live births commenced in 1785. The decrease is larger than during the years of famine toward the end of the First World War or than the downturn recorded during the Great Depression. In the Czech Republic, after the demise of socialism, an unprecedented decline in the number of live births occurred, as shown in Fig. 2. In absolute numbers this decline translates to a negative population growth: more people died than were born. Similar population downturns are typical also of other East European countries. The Russian birth rate has decreased by 35%. The birth rate in East Germany decreased 56% since the fall of the Berlin wall, currently being among the lowest in the world (Multimedia World Factbook, 1994).
Fig. 2. Polynomially approximated decrease in birth rates in the Czech
Republic
during transition from planned to marked economies.
What are the factors underlying this pattern? Aside from economic factors, the change from pro-family values of the socialist community to individualist and materialistic values characteristic of capitalist societies seems to have accelerated the disintegration of the traditional family. Not a negligible factor is the siphoning of females in their reproductive years into the sex industry. Prostitution, virtually nonexistent during the years of socialism, grows at an unprecedented rate. The pages of the help wanted sections of newspapers are filled with job offers for young females to work in the sexrelated occupations. Thousands of young women disappeared into the brothels of Germany, Italy, and Turkey, the favored destinations.
CRIME
The democratic governments of most East European countries incarcerate far more people than their socialist predecessors (cf. Mauer, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995). In Figs. 3 and 4, the baselines are the incarceration rates in 1989, and the increases are plotted as percentages of increase of incarceration rates for the Czech Republic (Fig. 3)
Fig. 3. Polynomially approximated increase in
incarceration rates in the Czech Republic
during transition from planned to marked economies.
and Russia (Fig. 4).
Fig. 4. Polynomially approximated increase in
incarceration rates in Russia
during transition from planned to marked economies.
These curves show change similar to those for the sexually transmitted diseases and reproductive rates reflecting the decline of the traditional family.
DISCUSSION
Together with rapidly rising unemployment rates and profound diversification of wealth in most East European countries reported elsewhere, the trends mentioned here support the recently proposed multiple regression model of criminal behavior in which criminality is attributed to the confluence of gross inequalities in the distribution of wealth and to the disintegration of the traditional family (Krus & Hoehl, 1994).
Recent events in most countries of eastern Europe also illustrate the ideological underpinnings of modern versions of Adam Smith’s economic model, as perhaps best represented by the social and economic theories of Milton Friedman (cf. Krus & Kennedy, 1982). The “market economy” and the “invisible hand” of Adam Smith are often heard phrases in economic discussions taking place east of the former Berlin wall. However, the “invisible hand” of market economy rapidly generates, aside from abundant goods, surplus human potential channeled to prisons, army, police force, prostitution, and rapidly growing legal and administrative systems. By closing Adam Smith’s invisible hand, the former socialist governments of East European countries were not able to generate surplus goods, but they did not generate surplus social ills either.
REFERENCES
Associated Press. (1996) Syphilis spreads in Russia. Arizona Republic, October 23, p. 12.
Burcin, B., & Kuceara, T. (1995) Bude nas malo a budeme starnout. Respekt, 35, p. 17.
CESKA TELEVIZE. (1996) Syfilis se rozrusta. January 12th Broadcast.
Dostal, P. (1996) Po revoluci na psychiatrii pribylo o tri sta procent vic pacientu. Pravo, 6, 77, March 30, p. 1.
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