Krus, D. J., & Webb, J. M. (2001) Validity of estimation of demographic trends associated with transition from planned to market economy. Translation of Krus, D. J., & Webb, J. M. (2001) Demographische Veranderungen, die mit dem Wandel vom Sozialismus zum Kapitalismus einhergehen. Zeitschrift fur Sozialpsychologie und Gruppendynamik  in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 26. Jg. Heft 2, 9-10. 

Validity of estimation of demographic trends associated with
 transition from planned to market economy. 

David J. Krus
Arizona State University

James M. Webb
Kent State University 

Summary.-Comparison of the 2001 and 1991 census data was interpreted within the observed demographic changes, marking transition from planned to market economy.

 In a previous communication (Krus, Nelsen, & Webb, 1997), we describe several emerging trends in selected East European countries, characteristic of their transition to a market economy. Recently, Cesky Statisticky Urad (2001, Czech Statistical Office) published results of the March 2001 census, together with results of the previous 1991 census. Comparing the demographic changes between these two censuses, we can validate trends suggested previously. In 1991 the Czech Republic had 10,302,915 inhabitants and in 2001 10,292,933 and these two basic counts serve as our reference points. Central point of our previous discussion was the observed rapid decrease in the number of live births, interpreted as follows: 

Aside from economic factors, the change from pro-family values of the socialist community to individualist and materialist values characteristic of capitalist societies seems to have accelerated the disintegration of the traditional family. Not a negligible factor is the siphoning of females in their reproductive years into the sex industry. Prostitution, virtually nonexistent during the years of socialism, grows at an unprecedented rate. […] Thousands of young women disappeared into the brothels of Germany, Italy and Turkey, the favored destinations.” (Krus et al., 1997, p. 749).

 

The 1991 census reported 21% of population as being younger than 14 years; in the 2001 census this figure was 16.5%. In absolute numbers, this means that after 10 years of capitalism, the number of children living in the Czech Republic decreased from 2,163,612 to 1,698,334, as shown in Fig. 1.

 

This decrease of about half-of-a-million children within a relatively small country closely corresponds to the trend we describe in our earlier analysis. Of interest within the discussed context is also the decrease in the number of females living in the Czech Republic. While the proportionally adjusted representation of males in the 1991 and 2001 populations is virtually identical, the number of females decreased from 50.5% in 1991 to 50.2% in 2001. These percentages translate to an absolute decrease of about 26,000 females. This supports the predicted trend in our previous article and lends credence to our conjecture that the decrease in the number of live births is partly due to the siphoning of females to the foreign countries.

 

References

Cesky Statisticky Urad (2001) Scitani v roce 2001 a Scitani v roce 1991 (Census in the years 2001 and 1991). Published on Internet http://www addres czso.cz/cz/sldb.

Krus, D.J., Nelsen, E.A., & Webb, J.M. (1997) Changes in crime rates and family-related values in selected East European countries. Psychological Reports, 81, 747-751.